Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants
Saturday 16 April, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Mumbai mess
Mumbai Indians are in a mess. They have lost five in a row and their campaign looks certain to end in disappointment now the league has been ex-panded to ten teams. Dramatic comebacks that they specialise in are probably for the past.
They suffered defeat by Punjab last time out. It was at least a slight improvement because they went into the last 12 balls in the chase with a sniff. Previously they had been outplayed.
Their balance did for them. Jaydev Unadkat at No 7 is the sort of joke you get in a cheap Christmas cracker. There are bigger issues, like the form of Rohit Sharma and Kieron Pollard. Teenage sensation Dewald Brevis is at least a bright spot.
Probable XI: Rohit, Ishan, Brevis, Varma, Yadav, Pollard, Unadkat, M Ashwin, Bumrah, Mills
Giants doing okay
Lucknow have three wins to their name in a solid start for the new franchise. But they probably feel it should be four after they were squeezed out by the Royals last time.
Chasing a moderate 165 following admirable work from their bowling unit, their middle-order went missing. Not that there is much history for the individuals involved of being front and centre.
Jason Holder, batting at No 4, Deepak Hooda and Ayush Badoni put them in a dreadful hole with low scores and low strike rates. They couldn’t recover. Not that they deserved to when batting Marcus Stoinis at No 8 whose late blast was wasted. It’s ridiculous that he’s batting below the likes of Holder.
Probable XI: KL Rahul, De Kock, Gowtham, Holder, Hooda, Badoni, Stoinis, Krunal, Chameera, Avesh, Bishnoi
Pitch report
There have been five matches so far at the Brabourne with the first-innings scores (most recent first with 1-2 denoting match won by side batting first or second) reading: 215-1/189-2/180-1/210-2/177-2.
As discussed previously, the toss bias is beginning to write itself. It was at 58% before Friday’s match. We’re not prepared to be betting blind on the chaser, particularly in an early match.
With the Brabourne wicket so flat, we would expect 170 batting first to be an absolute minimum even for Mumbai’s shaky batting. Bet the runs market here.
Lucknow underrated
Mumbai are 1.9420/21 for this one. This is one of the poorest prizes we have seen so far in the tournament. They are odds based purely on past reputation. No team with Unadkat at No 7 should be as short.
With Lucknow set at 2.0421/20 they rate a more than fair wager. We’re surprised they’re not trading as 1.804/5 favourites. Bet the match odds here
Tops value
KL Rahul has had a disappointing start to the season but he remains value on three-year win rate at a price-boosted 5/2 with Sportsbook for top Lucknow bat.
In terms of a wrong price based on batting order, Holder should be skinnier than 9/1 considering he batted at No 4 last time. You just have to make your peace that it’s too high a position for him in terms of ability. The same goes for Krish Gowtham at 25s. He was at No 3 last time. We’re going to have to take that.
For Mumbai, Tilak Varma looks overpriced for similar reasons. A 17/2 chance does not relate to his batting position at No 4. Unlike Holder and Gowtham we do not have worries about ability.