Chennai Super Kings v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Tuesday 12 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Chennai in trouble
Chennai are bottom of the pile after four matches. And their confidence is low according to coach Stephen Fleming.
The problem has not been so much the defeats but the manner of them. They’ve not had a sniff and they look like hollow former champs. Last time out the Sunrises handed them a thrashing. At least it might not get any worse.
Batting first they could manage only 154. Runscoring – the 210 v Lucknow the odd one out – has been a significant problem.
To that end Devon Conway could be worth a run in the side. Fellow Kiwi Adam Milne might come in for Chris Jordan, too.
Probable XI: Uthappa, Gaikwad, Moeen, Rayudu, Dube, Jadeja, Dhoni, Bravo, Jordan, Theekshana, Choudhury
Bangalore the real deal?
Royal Challengers Bangalore are an early conundrum in this IPL season. After their first match against Punjab when they couldn’t defend 205, it looked like same-old same-old.
But three straight wins have forced a rethink, including a comprehensive dismantling of Mumbai Indians.
Their renaissance will be sorely tested, though. Harshal Patel is surely out of the contest after leaving the bubble because of the death of his sister. All-rounder Mahipal Lomror could come in.
Josh Hazlewood is ready-made replacement and he is expected to make his debut meaning David Willey will have to step aside.
Probable XI: Du Plessis, Rawat, Kohli, Maxwell, Karthik, Shahbaz, Hasaranga, Lomror, Siraj, Deep, Hazlewood
Pitch report
The first-innings scores at DY Patil Stadium before Monday’s contest (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second) read: 154-2/149-2/169-1/193-1/128-2/205-2.
There’s a trend for the chaser, then. The 205 that was not defended was by RCB in their defeat by Punjab. Given that record and the bias overall in the tournament (65%) for the side batting second, it might be risky to go against it.
Wait for Hazlewood
Bangalore are 1.845/6 with Chennai 2.166/5. Given the form of the two teams it is arguable that Bangalore should be a little skinnier.
But as alluded to above, backing Bangalore at odds-on requires a significant strategy step-change. They have always been a team to take on when so short.
The comfort rug is probably Hazlewood. If the Aussie is in the XI then it’s fine to get on board. But if not, and with Harshal out, it’s one to swerve. Chennai should at least be capable of trading as favourites in those circumstances. Back the match odds here
Tops value
Ruturaj Gaikwad has personified Chennai’s struggles. He has a highest score of 16 this season. But he has a win rate of 34.6% meaning Sportsbook’s boosted 11/4 (implied probability 26.7%) is a gamble.
Gaikwad has excellent records against Wanindu Hasaranga and Mohammad Siraj (neither have got him out domestically) which helps with worries over his form.
Ravi Jadeja is a conundrum at 17/2. On ability and batting position he’s a bet. But not on win rate, although the caveat with that is he has not batted as high so often in the last three seasons.
For RCB, Du Plessis has appeal at 23/10. Virat Kohli has been boosted 11/4 but it’s no way near big enough. He wins in line with a 4/1 shot in the last three tournaments.