Sydney Thunder v Hobart Hurricanes
Thursday, 04:45 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
Sydney Thunder are the form team following six straight wins. The latest came against Hobart Hurricanes by a facile nine-wicket margin at the MCG and they face off again tomorrow morning at another Melbourne venue, the Marvel Stadium.
We discussed the Big Bash state of play on the latest Cricket…Only Bettor and both Ed Hawkins and I picked Thunder as the likeliest winners. They’re currently second favourites behind Perth Scorchers, at 3.613/5.
Thunder batting depth is the perfect T20 formula
The most encouraging part of Thunder’s make-up is the depth of batting and ability to attack from start to finish. Its the same formula that has served Chennai Super Kings so well in the IPL and Eoin Morgan’s England in white-ball cricket.
The last time they batted first was at this ground, where they hit 209 to win by 129 runs. That’s the second 200 score they’ve hit batting first this term, and fourth above 180. These are very big totals by Big Bash standards.
Moreover, the runs are coming from all quarters. Jason Sangha, Matthew Gilkes, Alex Hales and Sam Billings (now with England) have all passed 250 runs already. All-rounder Daniel Sams contributed 98 not out in that penultimate match. The bowlers are doing the business too, as evidenced by restricting both Hobart and Perth to below 140 on the last two times they bowled first.
Short odds about Thunder justified
I can’t see a weakness and, on that basis, odds of 1.674/6 are perfectly justified. However its my policy to swerve such short-odds, pre-toss, in domestic T20 cricket.
There isn’t a massive toss bias at the Marvel Stadium, at least on the long-term numbers. Over the last 25 BBL matches here, defenders lead chasers by 13-12. However three of the last four saw the team batting first hit 200 and defend it. One of those teams was Hobart, who trounced the hapless Renegades by 85 runs.
Therein lies another deterrant to taking short odds pre-match here. Hurricanes are a very inconsistent side. They’ve also hit 200 twice and boast a top-three capable of anything. Ben McDermott in particular is having an amazing tournament, running away with top runscorer honours on 495 runs.
These are quite worrying times for Hurricanes, though, as they look to shore up a play-off spot. They’ve lost three of their last four, all in disappointing fashion, and the only victory came against a decimated Brisbane Heat.
Very high totals available at the Marvel
In light of those previous big totals at the ground, its definitely worth chancing a repeat at big prices. 7/1 is available about Both Teams to Score 180.
Also the Thunder Sixes line looks too low at Under/Over 5.5. They’ve hit 75 compared to 58 for Hurricanes (24 of which came from one man, McDermott). They average 6.81 per match. and the average per team at the Marvel this term is 7.1. Back them to beat the 5.5 line and take 7/5 about Thunder hitting most sixes and winning the match.
Finally, the two OddsBoost batsmen are Alex Hales and McDermott, enhanced to 5/2 and 12/5 respectively to top their team’s run list.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty