Adelaide Strikers v Hobart Hurricanes
Wednesday, 07:05 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
Venue switched to Adelaide Oval
Covid is playing havoc with this Big Bash renewal, forcing a series of last-minute changes to the schedule and venues. Three fixtures were altered after a quartet of Brisbane Heat players tested positive but, at the time of writing, this match goes ahead tomorrow morning. The venue, however, has changed from the Metricon Stadium to the Adelaide Oval.
Realistically, this is a must-win affair for Adelaide Strikers, who are enduring their worst ever season. Having lost seven of their eight fixtures, they are rooted to the bottom of the table.
Strikers imbalance is proving ruinous
Predictably, a shortage of top-class batsmen is the problem. They’ve failed to make 150 in half of their matches and, on the three occasions they managed to pass 160, their total wasn’t nearly enough. Their only win came against fellow wooden spoon contenders Melbourne Renegades.
Nevertheless, their bowling attack always means they have a chance. Rashid Khan, Peter Siddle, Fawad Ahmed and Wes Agar represent a quality unit. Surely at some point, a batsman or two will do enough to give them something to defend.
Hurricanes very reliant on top-three
Could this be the day? Whilst three wins from their last four have propelled Hurricanes into contention, they are not bombproof by any means. A magnificent top order means they will inevitably hit some big scores – they’ve twice hit 200. Combined, Matthew Wade, D’Arcy Short and Ben McDermott have scored 762 runs, with the last-named recording two tons and averaging 70.
However on the flipside, their middle-order is vulnerable. Four of their eight totals were below 140. Furthermore, this is the last ground to be considering backing a side at short pre-toss odds – Hurricanes start at 1.75/7 compared to 2.47/5 for Strikers.
Batting first a major advantage here
The last six matches at the Adelaide Oval all went to the team batting first and, historically, that is the outcome of around two-thirds of matches at the ground.
If Strikers win the toss, bat first, and hit 170, they would be a confident recommendation to defend it. At this stage, I will employ my ‘25% rule’ and place a small order to back the hosts at 2.757/4 for a rare win.
Rashid good value against these opponents
Historically, Rashid Khan has been questionable value at short odds to finish as top wicket-taker but today’s 11/4 odds look pretty reasonable. A bet at these odds in each Strikers match this season would have yielded 17% profit. The prospect of bowling to that vulnerable middle-order makes this an ideal time to strike.
Today’s OddsBoost batsmen are Ben McDermott (to 13/5) for Hobart and Matthew Short (to 7/2) for Strikers. The former has won this market four times in six matches, so an argument could be made for the offer representing good value.
The likeliest candidate to produce the goods for Strikers is Matt Renshaw. He’s averaging 35 for his five matches – which is 10 higher than the next best for his side. He’s 16/5 to top-score for his side, or 9/1 to be Top Match Batsman. I’ll opt for the latter.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty